Reggie Bush, Sure Thing

With everyone already predicting Reggie Bush as the first overall pick in the 2006 draft, with the expectation that he is a "sure thing", Peter King does his best to throw a little reality into the mix:

For those who think picking Bush first overall is a one-way ticket to the Land of Enchantment, keep this in mind: It's been 48 years since a running back picked No. 1 overall helped that team win an NFL championship. Not since Paul Hornung was chosen first by the Green Bay Packers in 1957 (actually on Nov. 27, 1956) has a back won a championship with the team that drafted him. Hornung, of course, was a part of a Packers team that won four NFL titles. Running down the fate of the 11 running backs taken No. 1:

Year	Player	Team	Comment
1995	Ki-Jana Carter	Cincinnati	Injuries murdered his career.
1986	Bo Jackson	Tampa Bay	Star for 15 minutes -- till he blew out hip.
1981	George Rogers	New Orleans	Good career, but had to leave N.O. to win.
1980	Billy Sims	Detroit	Finished over .500 only twice in Detroit
1978	Earl Campbell	Houston	Great player. Couldn't climb Mount Steeler
1977	Ricky Bell	Tampa Bay	One good year before dying at 29
1969	O.J. Simpson	Buffalo	Bills playoff wins in Simpson Era: zero.
1965	Tucker Fredrickson	N.Y. Giants	The less said the better
1962	Ernie Davis	Washington	Died in 1963 of leukemia at age 23
1961	Tommy Mason	Minnesota	Never ran for 80 yards in 11 NFL years
1960	Billy Cannon	L.A. Rams	Signed with AFL Oilers. Never a Cowboy

So not one of those "sure things" ever led their team to greatness. Only a couple of those guys even made a name for themselves.

Am I predicting Bush will flop? No. I have no idea. But the idea that he is a guaranteed star in the making, and that simply acquiring him will take Houston or whoever to the promised land of championships is rather silly.